IN Brief:
- The UK lighting market is forecast to return to growth during 2026 after a period of subdued construction activity.
- LED products represent most sales by value, while luminaires, controls, and sensors are increasingly supplied as integrated systems.
- Building-efficiency rules, smart controls, BEMS integration, and infrastructure replacement programmes are expected to support demand through 2030.
Barbour ABI expects the UK lighting market to return to growth during 2026 as LED replacement programmes, connected controls, energy-efficiency requirements, and improving non-residential construction support renewed demand.
Luminaires remain the largest product category, although distinctions between fittings, light sources, sensors, drivers, emergency equipment, and controls are becoming less pronounced. Integrated LED products increasingly combine functions that were previously selected, installed, and maintained separately.
LED equipment now accounts for most lighting sales by value, while the replacement market continues to move away from fluorescent and other legacy technologies. Building owners are seeking lower energy use and reduced maintenance alongside improved controllability and compliance with current performance standards.
Growth is expected to continue towards 2030, supported by commercial refurbishment, public infrastructure, education, healthcare, industrial buildings, and other non-residential projects. The rate of expansion will remain closely connected to wider construction output and the timing of capital investment.
National Highways’ programme to convert most road lighting to LED by 2027 provides one significant source of infrastructure demand. Large portfolios offer repeatable installation work, although they also require asset surveys, column and cable assessment, traffic management, control integration, and carefully sequenced replacement programmes.
Across buildings, the market is moving beyond simple lamp substitution towards complete system upgrades. A replacement luminaire can reduce connected load, while occupancy detection, daylight control, scheduling, dimming, and central monitoring can further reduce operating hours and identify failures more rapidly.
Controls become part of the electrical system
Connected lighting introduces sensors, communications, addressing, software, and data alongside conventional power circuits. The choice between wired and wireless controls consequently affects containment, commissioning, cybersecurity, interoperability, maintenance, and future system expansion.
DALI-based installations allow individual or grouped control of compatible drivers and emergency devices. Reliable operation depends on correct bus design, addressing, device compatibility, commissioning records, and the availability of replacement products capable of joining the existing system.
Occupancy sensing can reduce unnecessary operation in intermittently used spaces, but coverage and delay settings must match actual building use. Poor positioning can leave occupied areas underlit or keep luminaires energised because movement outside the intended detection zone is registered.
Daylight-linked dimming requires commissioning against completed room conditions. Sensor location, glazing, external shading, surface reflectance, partitions, and furniture can all alter performance, making post-occupancy adjustment an important part of the installation process.
Integration with a building energy management system allows lighting data and commands to be coordinated with heating, ventilation, access, and occupancy controls. The interfaces between electrical, controls, IT, and facilities teams must be clearly defined if fault diagnosis and future alterations are to remain manageable.
Lighting as a Service introduces a longer-term commercial structure under which equipment, maintenance, and performance may be supplied through a service agreement. Such arrangements require dependable energy baselines, clear ownership provisions, defined access rights, and an agreed treatment of upgrades or early termination.
Regulation increases performance requirements
The Future Homes and Buildings Standard and the associated 2026 edition of Part L are due to influence lighting specifications from March 2027. Policy is moving towards higher efficacy, more automatic control, and closer assessment of operational building-energy performance.
Lighting Energy Numeric Indicator calculations estimate annual lighting consumption by combining installed power with occupancy, daylight, and control factors. The resulting performance depends on system design and commissioning as much as the nominal efficiency of individual luminaires.
Emergency lighting remains governed by separate life-safety requirements. Replacement projects must preserve suitable coverage of escape routes, open areas, and high-risk tasks while maintaining the specified duration, testing facilities, records, and maintenance access.
Integrated emergency packs can simplify installation, although they still require suitable battery access, charging arrangements, status indicators, test functions, and documentation. Automatic testing reduces manual inspection activity but increases reliance on correct addressing, communications, and fault reporting.
Product selection must also account for glare, colour rendering, colour temperature, flicker, ingress protection, impact resistance, ambient temperature, and electromagnetic compatibility. High headline efficacy alone does not establish suitability for a particular building, process, or visual task.
Retrofit surveys are consequently becoming more detailed. Existing circuit condition, protective devices, controls, ceiling construction, asbestos records, emergency provision, containment, structural support, and access can all alter the final installation scope.
Whole-life assessment needs to include maintenance and control performance rather than nominal wattage alone. An efficient luminaire that is difficult to access, poorly commissioned, or dependent on an unsupported proprietary platform may provide a weaker long-term outcome than its initial specification suggests.
The expected return to growth reflects both continuing replacement demand and the adoption of more capable systems. Projects that combine efficient luminaires with appropriate controls, thorough commissioning, accessible maintenance, and reliable product support will capture more of the available energy and lifecycle savings.