IN Brief:
- Ember has identified a 120 GW gap between planned renewables growth and available grid capacity across much of the EU.
- The pressure is showing up at both transmission level for utility-scale projects and distribution level for rooftop solar.
- The report points to grid-enhancing technologies, non-firm connections, and faster network investment as the main routes to release capacity.
Ember has warned that grid constraints across Europe are putting at least 120 GW of planned renewable generation at risk, with the tightest headroom appearing in both transmission networks for utility-scale projects and distribution systems for smaller-scale connections. The group’s latest analysis maps the mismatch between planned renewables growth and currently available grid capacity across EU member states.
The report identifies particularly severe transmission bottlenecks in Austria, Bulgaria, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Slovakia, where available capacity would accommodate less than 10% of the renewables planned before 2030. It also points to a much broader queue problem, with almost 700 GW of renewable capacity already waiting for grid connection across 10 EU countries.
The distribution side of the problem is also becoming harder to ignore. Ember found that in 13 countries publishing distribution-level capacity data, six do not have enough headroom to accommodate anticipated growth in small-scale solar, placing at least 16 GW of rooftop capacity at risk. The group estimates that limited distribution capacity could affect up to 1.5 million households, with the highest exposure in Slovenia and Denmark.
Ember’s Crossed wires report points to faster deployment of non-wire measures, including grid-enhancing technologies and non-firm connection agreements, alongside more aggressive reinforcement and equipment upgrades. The central conclusion is not that the pipeline is weak, but that grid development is moving too slowly against the pace of new generation and electrified demand.
