IN Brief:
- EGEC wants the EU to adopt a target of at least 250GW of combined geothermal electricity, heating and cooling capacity by 2040.
- The organisation estimates current EU capacity at 41.4GW and forecasts that the proposed expansion could deliver more than 1,000TWh annually.
- EGEC wants the target incorporated into the EU geothermal action framework and monitored through a stakeholder partnership expected to be established in 2027.
The European Geothermal Energy Council (EGEC) has asked the European Union to adopt a target of at least 250GW of geothermal capacity by 2040, covering electricity generation, heating and cooling. Its proposal, published on 29 October 2026, calls for the ambition to be incorporated into the forthcoming European geothermal action framework and monitored through a stakeholder partnership planned for 2027.
EGEC estimates that the EU’s 27 member states currently have 41.4GW of installed geothermal capacity across those applications. Its proposed expansion would raise the combined figure to roughly six times that level over the next 14 years. The association forecasts that 250GW could deliver more than 1,000TWh of useful energy annually, amounting to approximately 20% of projected final energy consumption excluding transport in 2040. These are industry projections, rather than targets already adopted by EU institutions.
The 250GW ambition was previously advanced by a coalition of more than 200 geothermal stakeholders in June 2024. EGEC’s latest intervention seeks to give that existing objective a place in the EU’s developing energy policy framework. In particular, it wants the figure included in the geothermal action plan associated with the European Geothermal Stakeholder Partnership and reflected in future arrangements for monitoring national energy and climate plans.
The European Commission published its Electrification Action Plan on 17 July 2026, setting out measures intended to increase the proportion of energy demand met through electricity. EGEC is seeking a geothermal programme alongside that policy, recognising the technology’s potential to generate electricity and deliver heat directly to buildings and industrial processes. The proposed partnership is expected to be established in 2027, but neither the capacity target nor a timetable for achieving it has been made legally binding.
The proposed 250GW total combines electrical generation capacity with the thermal capacity of heating and cooling systems. Electrical generating capacity measures the maximum rate of electricity production, while a geothermal heating network is generally rated by the thermal power it can supply. Ground-source heat pumps deliver useful heat or cooling using electricity to operate compressors and circulation systems. Those ratings describe different outputs and cannot be read as 250GW of new electrical generation.
High-temperature geothermal resources can produce electricity by transferring heat from underground fluids into a turbine cycle. In some installations, steam from the resource drives a turbine directly; others use a secondary working fluid that vaporises at a lower temperature. The turbine operates an electrical generator, with the available output determined by resource temperature, fluid flow, conversion efficiency and the energy consumed by auxiliary equipment.
Geothermal power can provide electricity over extended operating periods because the heat resource is not dependent on daily sunlight or wind conditions. Sustained output nevertheless requires wells and heat-extraction systems to operate within their design limits. Reservoir pressure, temperature changes, pump availability and planned maintenance influence the electrical energy that a particular installation can deliver over time.
At lower resource temperatures, direct heat supply may be more practical than electricity generation. Hot water extracted from a suitable underground formation can transfer energy through heat exchangers to a district heating system or an industrial process. The heat network then circulates a separate fluid to consumers, with pumping equipment, insulation and control systems managing the required temperatures and flows.
Industrial applications impose different requirements from residential district heating. Process equipment may need steam or hot water at defined temperatures and pressures, while production schedules influence the pattern of demand. A geothermal supply operating below the temperature required by a process may need a heat pump or supplementary heating equipment. The resulting energy balance depends on the geothermal resource and the efficiency of the additional equipment.
Ground-source heat pumps provide another route to geothermal heating and cooling in buildings. They exchange heat with the ground through buried loops or boreholes and use a refrigeration cycle to raise or lower the temperature delivered indoors. Their useful thermal output is greater than their electrical input under suitable conditions, although the ratio changes with ground temperature, the delivery temperature required and operating conditions.
Deep geothermal plants require geological investigation, drilling and testing before developers can establish the available resource. Their construction programmes differ from those of heat networks and individual building systems. Heat networks require distribution pipework, heat exchangers and customer connections, while individual heat pump systems involve ground loops, building services and electrical connections. A combined target therefore depends on development across several supply chains rather than one standard plant design.
Early drilling presents a particular investment challenge because the performance of an underground resource is uncertain until sufficient measurements are available. Geological surveys can identify promising formations, but production testing is needed to establish temperatures, flow rates and the likely behaviour of wells. A project can incur substantial costs before the recoverable heat output and its commercial value are established.
EGEC has called for better access to geological information and financial mechanisms that reduce exploration risk. Common data resources can help developers compare prospective locations, while appropriately designed guarantees or other risk-sharing arrangements may influence whether investors support drilling before a project’s output is known. These measures would need to be developed and implemented through the relevant public and financial institutions.
Geothermal generating stations need transformers, switchgear, protection systems and a network connection to export power. Heat-led developments may require substantial electricity for compressors and circulation pumps, with the associated demand affecting local distribution capacity. Engineers must coordinate those loads with the thermal equipment and the operating requirements of the connected customers.
The distance between a geothermal heat source and its consumers influences district heating pipework costs and thermal losses. A resource with suitable temperature and flow may still be difficult to develop commercially if a substantial distribution network must be constructed before sufficient demand is connected. Industrial customers with concentrated thermal loads can offer a different operating arrangement, provided the required temperatures and supply conditions are compatible.
EGEC wants the forthcoming revision of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action to provide a means of monitoring geothermal expansion. The current framework governs energy and climate planning and reporting across member states. Incorporating a specific deployment objective would require institutional decisions and an agreed method for measuring combined electrical and thermal capacity across different technologies.
The association proposes that the European Geothermal Stakeholder Partnership, expected in 2027, monitor progress towards the 2040 ambition. That process could draw together policymakers, project developers, utilities, industrial energy users and equipment suppliers, but its responsibilities and reporting arrangements remain to be established. National planning, permitting and investment decisions would still determine which installations proceed.
The proposed target is now before EU policymakers developing the geothermal action framework. EGEC’s forecast of more than 1,000TWh annually depends on the deployment of electricity, heating and cooling technologies with different technical and commercial requirements. The stakeholder partnership planned for 2027 is the next identified policy milestone, with decisions on any formal target and monitoring arrangements still to follow.
