IN Brief:
- LCP Delta modelling suggests long-duration storage could replace part of planned gas capacity in Germany at lower consumer cost.
- The analysis sits against Germany’s approved 12 GW climate-neutral capacity procurement, most of it structured around up to 10 hours of supply.
- Duration, availability, and auction design are now central to how Germany secures dispatchable low-carbon capacity.
LCP Delta has added new weight to Germany’s long-duration storage debate with analysis suggesting that part of the country’s planned climate-neutral capacity could be delivered more cheaply by storage than by new gas-fired plant. The work comes as Germany moves toward a 12 GW procurement framework approved by the European Commission, with market design and technology eligibility still under close scrutiny.
Under the approved structure, 10 GW is tied to a requirement for continuous supply of up to 10 hours, while the remaining 2 GW does not carry that long-duration condition. LCP Delta’s analysis examines whether storage assets capable of covering longer discharge periods could take a larger role in maintaining security of supply. The central question is no longer whether batteries can contribute to adequacy, but how far they can displace thermal capacity in a procurement model still shaped by conventional assumptions.
The modelling includes a reference scenario with 8 GW of new gas-fired capacity, 2 GW of long-duration storage, and 2 GW of conventional battery storage. LCP Delta found that replacing 2 GW of gas with long-duration storage could deliver annual consumer savings of up to €166 million while maintaining the same level of security of supply. It also identified a substantially lower annual subsidy requirement for battery storage than for gas capacity within the modelled framework.
Duration sits at the core of the analysis. LCP Delta found that most supply bottlenecks in the modelled cases do not persist for especially long periods, with a large majority lasting no more than 10 hours and half lasting less than four hours. That does not remove the need for dispatchable thermal capacity across all conditions, but it does strengthen the case for a portfolio in which long-duration storage takes on a larger share of the reliability burden than many legacy market designs currently allow.
The auction design will now be pivotal. Capacity markets often reveal as much about policy assumptions as they do about technology economics. If qualification rules, delivery definitions, or settlement structures are written around the operating profile of gas, then storage can be excluded or weakened before bidding even begins. The current German debate is therefore not simply about cost comparison. It is about whether market design can recognise a broader mix of flexibility assets without compromising reliability standards.
The issue reaches beyond Germany. Across Europe, governments are looking for ways to replace retiring fossil and nuclear capacity while limiting long-term exposure to imported fuels and carbon-intensive backup. Gas remains the default answer in many markets because it is familiar, dispatchable, and supported by existing financing logic. Storage is now challenging that position more directly, especially where falling costs and broader revenue opportunities improve the investment case.
Batteries also offer value outside adequacy. Long-duration systems can contribute to balancing, renewable integration, congestion management, and ancillary services, which means their economics cannot be understood solely through a narrow peak-capacity lens. That broader service stack is part of the argument for treating storage as a core system asset rather than a specialist add-on. It also complicates the policy task, because auction rules have to capture reliability value without ignoring wider system benefits.
Germany’s procurement decisions will be followed closely across the region. They will indicate how far European capacity policy is prepared to incorporate storage into firm-power planning on equal terms. LCP Delta has published further material on its energy transition work.